Will India Seize Digital Revolution Opportunity- Complete Article
Will
India Seize Digital Revolution Opportunity?
Policy
Reforms for a Digitalised Indian Economy
SUBHASH
CHANDRA GARG
Economy,
Finance and Fiscal Policy Strategist and Former Finance and Economic Affairs
Secretary, Government of India
COMPLETE
ARTICLE
THE DIGITAL AGE
India led the
agricultural transformation and became rich for many millennia. India, however,
resisted industrial transformation and missed it massively by coming on the
bandwagon quite late. The world is now undergoing the third transformation-
digitalisation of production of all goods and services.
Shall we be able to
seize this digital revolution opportunity?
Chip, Code and Internet
are the Basic Building Blocks of Digital Age
Fossil fuels- coal and
petroleum- converted to steam and electric energy made industrialisation of
economies possible using the technology embedded in machines. The mechanisation
engineered fundamental transformation of agricultural economies all over the
world. The industrial revolution was built on two big technological
innovations- power and machines.
The countries which harnessed
the power of this mechanisation- the industrialised countries- grew their GDP,
became rich and the living standards of their people improved enormously. India
was a late comer to industrialisation and adopted wrong policies in the
socialist era and therefore could make only limited gains in the industrial
era.
Another fundamental transformation
is underway in the 21st century built on three fundamental
technological innovations- the integrated circuits or the chip, software or the
code and interconnected communication or the internet. These three innovations
have massively modified and augmented the capabilities of the two killer
innovations of industrial era- electricity and machines in three different ways.
First, the electric
engineering improved into electronics, which created integrated circuits or
micro-chips or simply the chip. These chips, machined into computers, could manipulate
the electrons on a semiconductor surface to do functions of calculations,
storage of information/data, retrieving and transmitting data etc. This is the
hardware.
Second, the software
programming or coding could write codes to bring massive intelligence to the
computers. A code, written in machine language or transmitted to chips via the
software, makes the chip perform the functions of calculations, storage of
information/data, retrieving and transmitting data etc.
The chip and the code
together are somewhat like the cells in our bodies which makes our body and
mind to do everything which the humans do. The chip and the code work on
information in data form to do all the work we do with our computers, laptops,
cell-phones and whatever other electronic device. All the information/data is
in the form of electrons or electronic form, appropriately stored or worked.
Third, the discovery of
electro-magnetic transmission made it possible to transmit the data and
information over big distances in a jiffy. The technology of internet allowed
the computers to be joined into a network regardless of distances. It is far
easier, cheaper and speedier to transmit electronic data through the internet than
through any physical medium. The revolution in communication technologies using
electromagnetic forces in different ways and mediums- fibre optics, mobiles,
satellites etc.- makes the internet simply unbeatable.
The combination of the
chip (integrated circuits in the hardware) and the code (coded programming or
the software) or the Information Technology and the internet (communication
technology using electro-magnetic forces), together referred as Information and
Communications Technology or ICT, is the foundation and flourish of ICT
revolution.
The ICT revolution work
on manipulation of data stored and operated with simplest of basic unit- the
binary digits of 1 and 0 or on and off in electric impulse terms. No wonder,
the ICT revolution is also the digital revolution.
India has to be a
leader in all the three technologies- the chip, the code and the internet- to
become the economic powerhouse of 21st century, which is absolutely
necessary to make up for the lost opportunity in the industrial era.
Digitalisation of Production
and Distribution of All Goods and Services Produced is the Real Opportunity
Digital technologies
have enormous potential to transform all the constituents of economy- whether
in agriculture, industries or services- by digitalising the manual and
mechanical production processes of goods and services. The digital technologies
have multiple advantages over the manual and industrial processes.
Digital technologies
have unbeatable advantages in services specially. By digitising voucher
entries, the whole edifice of accounts, payments, tax compliance etc. can be
not only be made real time with multi-locations integrated and all accounts and
reports generated and printed instantaneously anywhere, anytime and at very
little cost. No wonder entire accounting and payments have become so efficient
and cost less. UPI system rides on the integrated accounts of every bank
account holder in India.
Quality of
entertainment programmes have improved by leaps and bounds with movies
delivered at home televisions in ultra-high definition and other modes as it is
possible to digitalise entire content, including music, in top quality format.
It is possible to distribute a book, a sports event or a cinema instantly all
over the globe. Contrast this with the book printing of industrial era which
required every word to be composed by manually arranging letters on a composing
plate and then to go through machine printing, compiling and distributing
physically.
The goods production
and distribution processes can be digitalised to varying extent. At the
minimum, one may organise sell and purchase of books or any other commodity
quite efficiently on electronic commerce platforms. The e-commerce is actually
a service which aids in better distribution of goods produced to the consumers.
Traditional function like rearing of crops could be massively improved by
digitalisation of the process of watering, applying fertilisers and many other
functions. The ultimate in the digitalisation is the production of a commodity
using 3-D printing process.
Traditional cameras
could not compete with digital cameras and went out of business. Hundreds of
products produced using industrial processes earlier have gone out of use
replaced by digitally produced goods and services. Likewise, many services
traditionally delivered- trading, wholesaling, accounting etc. have been
massively disrupted and in many cases fully replaced by digitalised delivery.
Covid-19 made everyone
realise that a company specific office establishment is not required to write
even codes for digitalising the economy and governance. Education can be
delivered equally, if not more, effectively by using digital technologies. It
will not be out of place to see very soon lot of the commerce, education,
travelling, entertainment etc. delivered by employing digital technologies.
This is the age of
transformation. The governments may not operate from the buildings of
Ministries and Departments. The officers and assistants may work from home or
multi-departmental offices organised in their residential societies. Same might
be the fate of private sector office establishments. Some companies have
already started asking question why should they be spending fortune on hiring
big office or tech production centres when the net productivity of their staff
working remotely is much higher.
Whichever country gets
it right and aggressively seek to digitalise the production processes will come
out to be more competitive and productive and will lead the race of transformation
to digital economy.
Digitalisation Sweepstakes
There are three
sweepstakes in the race for digitalising the economy which will decide the
ultimate winners of the digital era.
First, the development
of digital hardware industry- production of chips, electronics and digital
content transmission equipment.
Second, the development
of digital software services- the ability to write the best codes to use data
and information to digitalise the production and consumption processes.
Third, the digital
infrastructure and skills to enable production of hardware, software and
digitalisation of economies.
The digital machines or
the hardware (the chips and its operating equipment and communication networks)
itself will grow into a major contributor of digital economy. Design and
production of computers, laptops, cell-phones, telecom equipment, data storage
equipment, transmission systems and networks and myriad other hardware are what
human body was to agriculture era and machines were to the industrial era- the
basic goods and the capital goods of digital era. The hardware is not only
necessary for digitalising the domestic economy but is also the differentiator
in export competitiveness of next 20 years at least.
The programme or the
code contained in the brain cells makes an animate body work. Humans have
larger and more evolved brain cells; humans can do phenomenal kinds of work-
from the simple repetitive manual work to most artistic and advanced philosophical
work. Animals have smaller and simpler brain cells and therefore can do a
limited type of work. Machines of industrial era- Industry 1.0 and 2.0
especially- were simple machines with the capability of doing equivalent of
repetitive manual work. Digitally programmed machines (Industry 4.0) can do
much more work and undertake quite complicated tasks. Complex programmes or
codes can be written for machines now which confer intelligence to machines.
This ‘artificial intelligence’ makes machines auto-execute many tasks without
human intervention. The code is the brain which assists humans to do much more
than without these programmes. The code is the brain which makes machines do
much more that without the programmes. The ability to write codes or programmes
or software and use it to digitise more and more production processes is the
competitive advantage in the digital age.
Digital era requires
digital infrastructure. Letters in the agriculture era was carried by horses or
humans from one place to another. In the industrial era, the post required
infrastructure of roads, railways and aircrafts for being carried from one
place to another. The digital era requires digital information highways of
fibre optics, electro-magnetic spectrum and network of satellites to carry the
post. The digital era infrastructure allows post to almost instantaneously
carried from one place to another. Digital era infrastructure makes the
transmission of posts much cheaper and personally delivered as well. Publishing
a book or distributing a movie, thanks to digital infrastructure, is so much
easy, less costly and extremely convenient in the digital era. The countries
with better, efficient and everywhere available digital infrastructure stand
much better chance to grow more rapidly.
Some countries like
China, United States of America, Taiwan have raced ahead in digital
infrastructure, production of the hardware and digitalisation of production
processes. India has been notably ahead only in software development.
Digital Era Governments
and Households
Digital era
technologies- the chip, the code and internet/the communication technologies,
riding on the digital infrastructure- are transforming not only the economies
but also the governments and households. The governments can use digital
technologies as effectively, advantageously and pervasively to produce and
deliver public goods and redistribution as the private enterprise does to
produce private goods and services.
The governments can and
should examine each and every governance service it delivers for being
digitally organised, produced and delivered. Likewise, all redistribution
services can be delivered more efficiently and effectively directly to the
intended beneficiary by using digital technologies. Digital age technologies
can help transform policing, border defence, jails, courts, tax administration
and any other governance service. Transaction of work in government offices can
move from physical processes to electronic processes more productively and with
better accountability. Delivery of scholarships, subsidies and pensions etc.
can certainly be far more efficiently organised digitally than manually.
The governments invest
a lot in infrastructure creation for betterment of people’s lives and for
productivity of economy. The digital infrastructure is the differentiator for
the digital age economies and people’s lives. The governments can and should
invest in digital infrastructure to provide the competitive edge to the economy
and governance support to the people’s lives.
Digital technologies
are transforming households as well. This change is taking place for last
two-three decades. Most households now use some digital age technologies-
desktops/laptops, smart phones, digital televisions. Most household equipment-
refrigerators, air conditioners, cameras, cleaning bots and so on- also have
some electronics in them now. Most households communicate now using digital
means- emails, messaging, video calls- these days. The digital technologies
have entered notably in households. Many of other remaining aspects of
household living- house security, electricity use etc. are also increasingly
adopting some electronics in their management. It is a matter of time that
remaining aspects of households- transportation vehicles, cooking food etc.
will also be more and more electronics driven.
The countries which
actively digitalise their governments and households and institute business and
household friendly digital governance, will see not only their citizens live
better lives but also grow faster economically.
CURRENT STATE OF
DIGITAL ECONOMY OF INDIA
Digital technologies
are transforming the economies the world over. Global digital economy is
estimated to be of the order of about 5 trillion dollars now or about 5-6% of
global GDP. However, there is still lot of non-standard measurement of global
digital GDP. Production of microprocessor chips by Intel is unquestionably
digital hardware. So are the laptops produced by Dell or desktops produced by
Lenovo. Likewise, codes written by and BPM services provided by TCS and Infosys
are also clearly digital economy. But is turnover of e-commerce platform like
Amazon or Flipcart digital economy? Or, UPI payments all digital economy?
The confusion between
digital economy and digitalisation of economy has to be very clearly
understood. Sale of goods is trading whether performed by mom & pop store,
malls or as e-commerce. Likewise, providing credit by banks is banking whether
delivered by processing a manual file or digitally. Production processes are
getting more and more digitalised across all sectors of economy by building in
of integrated circuits and software programmes. The capex incurred on digitising
a manual or agricultural or industrial process gets counted as value added by
the supplier. There should not be double counting of digitalised services like
trading, banking or entertainment as digital economy.
A good metric to assess
is digitalisation of different sectors of economy. As the digital processes
provide much bigger competitive advantage compared to the non-digital process,
the digitalisation of different sectors fast will further the cause of faster
economic growth.
The digitalisation can
be measured by developing a good index taking into account factors like the
extent of digital hardware and software capex out of total capex. The capex
incurred by Powergrid and other transmission companies on computers, fibre
optics, scanners and all other digital hardware and all the codes/programmes
purchased as a proportion of total capex incurred would indicate, in a broad
measure, the digitalisation of the power transmission. Other factors like proportion
of consumers reached digitally out of total consumers or turnover achieved
digitally out of total turnover of a company or an industry would also indicate
digitalisation of that sector. An index of all the relevant factors can be
built to gauge the extent of digitalisation.
Same principles and
considerations apply in Indian context. The state of digital Indian economy is
best figured out by assessing how much of Indian GDP comes from the production
of digital goods and services. The state of digitalisation of Indian economy
should be separately assessed by developing an appropriate metric for it.
Size of Indian Digital Economy
All the economic
activities are organised into five-digit codes and in 21 sections, 88
divisions, 238 groups, 403 classes and 1304 sub-classes for compilation of GDP
and various other statistical purposes.
There is one specific
division which capture manufactured digital goods. This is the Division 26-
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, which have various
digital goods organised into 8 groups. There
is one specific section- Section J- which has all the divisions which capture
the value added from the digital services. The digital services are captured in
Division 58- Group 582 Software publishing, Division 62- Computer programming,
consultancy and related activities and Division 63- Information Service
Activities with two groups- Group 631- Data processing, hosting and related
activities; web portal and Group 639-Other Information service activities. Of
other divisions in this section- Division 59- Motion Pictures, video and
television programme production, sound recording and music publishing
activities, Division 60- Broadcasting and programming activities and Division
61- Telecommunication are also substantially in digital mode.
Total GVA in
manufacturing sector in 2017-18 at current prices was Rs. 23.20 lakh crore. GVA
of the IT products manufactured (manufacture of computer, electronic and
optical products, manufacture of electronic components, consumer electronics,
magnetic and optical media and manufacture of manufacture of optical and
electronic products put together) was only Rs. .85 lakh crore in the corporate
sector or less than 3.6% of manufactured GVA. In the household sector, this was
only .1 lakh crore out of total output of Rs. 8.7 lakh crore or less than 1.3%.
Thus, total GVA from digital machines manufacturing was Rs. .95 lakh crores out
to total GVA of 31.90 lakh crores or about 3%. If we include the GVA of communication
equipment manufactured as part of digital manufacturing GVA, the situation
improves marginally to Rs. 1.13 lakh crore (adding .18 lakh crore GVA of
communication industry), which was 3.5% of the manufacturing GVA. India’s
manufacturing of digital technology products is quite small.
The size of digital
services is much larger. In 2017-18, the gross value added at current prices,
under the head ‘information and computer related services’, was Rs. 5.91 lakh
crores. This made up 6.79% of services GVA of 87.06 lakh crores.
Total gross value added
in 2017-18 was Rs. 154.83 lakh crores. The GVA of the digital goods and
services, both hardware and software, was Rs. 7.92 lakh crores or 5.12%. The
digital economy GDP of India makes up approximately 5% of the total economy.
India has a long way to go despite our proven prowess in producing and
delivering digital business services and also in writing software programmes.
Digitalisation of Indian
Economy
Agriculture and
industrial economies begin getting digitalised when their manual and mechanical
processes are improved upon with the addition of digital capital stock-
hardware and connection to digital networks- and embedding of information
technology services. The capital expenditure of all the traditional sectors of
economy- agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction and different kinds
of services- on information technology equipment can be a good indicator of
digitalisation taking place in any of these goods and services producing
sectors. Likewise, the operational expenditure on information technology
services by these traditional sectors can be additional indicator of
digitalisation underway.
Data of capital
expenditure made is available, for each sector of economic production, divided
in four broad categories of a. dwellings, other buildings and structures, b. machinery
and equipment, c. cultivated biological resources and d. Intellectual property
products. Capital expenditure on digital hardware and software programmes
purchased is part of machinery and equipment. Unfortunately, the disaggregated
data on capital expenditure made on digital hardware, network connections and
software programmes out of the total capital expenditure on machinery and
equipment are not separately available.
Services are getting
far more digitalised than the goods. Amongst the services, the financial
services, accounting services, communication services, entertainment services,
transportation services etc. are getting digitalised very fast. More than 90%
of payments by value are made digitally now. Most banking services are consumed
digitally now. Lot of television, movies and sports programmes are produced and
delivered digitally these days. As the domestic production of digital equipment
and machinery for producing and delivering these services are not produced in
the country, there is a very heavy dependence on imports. Electronics imports
exceed $50 billion and are the second largest item of imports making up more
than 10% of total import bills. India has been good at delivering software
services, but even the basic software for digitalising economic processes is
imported in large quantities.
Digitalisation of
economy is progressing, but it is still at a relatively nascent stage.
India is Still to
Arrive in the Digital Age
UNCTAD publishes an
annual Digital Economy Report. The last available edition is the 2019 edition.
The world is fast digitalising but the ‘world is only in the early days of the
data-driven economy’, concludes the Report, despite stellar progress. India is
relatively a minor player still.
First, the global
internet protocol traffic, which was only 100 gigabytes per day in 1992 grew to
100 gigabytes per second in 1992 and a little less than 50000 gigabytes per
second in 2017.
Second, digital economy
is highly concentrated in two countries- the US and China. 90% of market
capitalisation value of world’s 70 largest digital platforms is in these two
countries.
Third, 40% of
colocation data centres in Feb 2019 were in the USA. India had only 3% of data
centres.
Fourth, the e-commerce
sales exceed 80% in South Korea, 60% in Japan and 45% in USA. India’s share of
e-commerce is much smaller. Cross border B2C sales from India is almost
non-existent whereas it exceeds more than 5% for quite a few countries.
Fifth, top 100%
web-sites located in South Asia, including India, are hardly requested outside
South Asia. Top 100 websites located in US-Canada region are requested almost
everywhere in the world.
Sixth, not a single top
70 global platforms providing different e-commerce services- transportation,
delivery, financial services, entertainment, media, search etc.- are Indian.
We have dominant
presence in business process outsourcing (BPO) services industry with more than
50% share of the global market. This is more on account of our productive
digital labour than digital entrepreneurship, capital or technology prowess.
PROGRAMMES AND POLICIES
TO DIGITALISE INDIAN ECONOMY
The Government of India
has been undertaking several programmes to promote digitalisation of governance
and digital empowerment of common man. However, there is no coherent and
well-directed strategy for digitalisation of economy. This is hurting India’s
growth potential.
The government
undertook a number of small standalone programmes in 1980s-1990s for advancing
the objective of electronic governance. In the middle of the first decade of
new millennium, the government adopted National E-governance Programme bringing
together all the 30 odd discrete programmes. Further visioning, consolidation
and some additions have led to the programmes being rechristened as Digital
India Programme.
The Digital India
programme also focuses on digital governance and citizen’s empowerment and
organises government’s programmatic interventions in nine pillars. There is an
element of digital infrastructure creation in the Digital India programme.
However, the Digital India programme is not a Make-In- India programme for
manufacturing hardware and software in India or creation of digital networks
and platforms which are the real growth engines
The Make-In-India
Programme is the manufacture in India programme and has 25 sectors to focus on.
IT and BPM sector is one of these 25 sectors. There is no Hardware focus in the
Make-In-India programme.
India’s Trillion Dollar
Digital Opportunity
The Ministry of
Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY) published a report titled
‘India’s Trillion Dollar Digital Opportunity’. The report presents a detailed but
a mixed-up strategy for India to seize the trillion-dollar economic opportunity
by 2025.
The Report does not
project goal of 1 trillion dollars Gross Value Added or GVA in 2025 from the
ICT sector. Therefore, the $1 trillion goal is not related to the GDP of $1
trillion. It takes a wider concept of the ‘digital ecosystem’ which includes recognised
parts of the ICT/Digital Economy comprising information technology and business
process management (IT-BPM), digital communication services (including telecom)
and domestic electronics manufacturing which are the recognised sectors of the
GVA matric, but also turnover from ‘e-commerce’, ‘digital payments’ and ‘direct
subsidy transfers’, which only have a part of their turnover and value added
attributable to digital economy.
The report does,
however, help focus attention to the economy sectors with excellent potential
of mainstreaming digitalisation.
National Electronics
Policy for Hardware
National
Electronics Policy 2012
The chip designing and
making and producing integrated circuits for manufacturing computers and
embedding in consumer and other products, also called Electronic System Design
and Manufacturing or ESDM or simply Electronics is first of three big digital revolution
technology- the hardware.
India recognised in
2012 that it was losing the electronics hardware game and came out with the
National Policy on Electronics or NPE 2012. The policy recognised very
explicitly that the Electronics Industry was the ‘largest and fastest growing
manufacturing industry in the world’ with turnover of about $1.75 trillion. It
also recognised that Indian domestic electronics industry was quite small at
only $20 billion with ‘actual value-addition in the domestically produced electronic
product’ being ‘very low, ranging between 5 to 10 percent in most cases’. The
NPE presented a scary kind of scenario, unless the Government took action, of
Indian demand for electronics reaching to $400 billion by 2020 and India
importing about $300 billion of electronics, which ‘may far exceed oil
imports.’
The NPE 2012
articulated vision of creating ‘a globally competitive electronics design and
manufacturing industry to meet the country’s needs and serve the international
market’ and the specific objective of achieving a turnover of about $400
billion by 2020 involving investment of about $100 billion and employment to
around 28 million’.
The NPE 2012 proposed a
slew of measures like providing ‘attractive fiscal incentives across the value chain
of the ESDM sector through a Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme (M-SIPS)
to eliminate the disability costs in manufacturing on account of infrastructure
gaps relating to power, transportation etc. and to mitigate the relatively high
cost of finance etc.’ It also spoke of ‘setting up of Semiconductor Wafer Fab
facilities and its eco-system for design and fabrication of chips and chip
components.’ All other usual tried measures of giving ‘preference to
domestically produced electronic products’, ‘incentives for setting up of over
200 Electronic Manufacturing Clusters (EMCs)’ ‘development of appropriate
infrastructure’, a ‘fairly stable tax regime conducive to attract global
investments and to encourage electronics sector’ and a ‘Fund of Funds’ were
also promised.
The policy did not
achieve its objectives though share of India in global electronics manufacture
went up from 1.3% in 2012 to about 3.0% in 2018. Electronics imports exceeded
$50 billion in 2019-20 with 40% of it coming from China. There has been notable
progress in mobile handset manufacturing but the domestic electronics industry
is still not $75 billion.
National
Electronics Policy 2019 (NPE-2019)
NPE 2019 is some
refinement but largely an updated version of NPE-2012. The target of $400
billion electronics manufacture turnover which was to be achieved by 2020 has
been pushed to 2025. The NPE-2019 relies heavily on manufacture of mobile
handsets (1 billion handsets; turnover $190 billion).
The NPE-2019 recounts
very poor progress made in most of the interventions/measures initiated under
NPE-2012. Capital investments reported by 134 units assisted under M-SIPS made
capital investment of $1.3 billion and achieved turnover of about $10 billion.
20 Greenfield Electronics Manufacturing Clusters (EMCs) and 3 Brownfield
Clusters were ‘sanctioned’ but none seem to have become functional. The amount
committed by the Electronics Development Fund, the Fund of Fund set up to
encourage Venture Capital Funds, could commit only Rs. 857 crore or about $130
million in total to as many as 13 ‘daughter funds.’
There are some
modifications. Fabless Chip Design Industry is to be promoted now whereas the
Semiconductor Fab Facilities proposed in NPE-2012 did not get established in
the country.
The NPE-2019 does not
offer anything new for promoting electronic hardware production in the country.
The Government is supplementing the NPE-2019 by taking other measures- like
Production Linked Incentives- to encourage establishment of industries which
uses good amount of electronics.
Production
Linked Incentive Scheme for Large Scale Electronics Manufacturing
The NPEs, minus the
semi-conductor fab manufacturing, effectively targeted small-scale enterprises
in the electronics sector. These enterprises either make some electronics
component or use the bought out electronic components in consumer electronic
products. These are not the manufactures of basic electronics like chips made
by Intel or solar wafers etc. Nor are these enterprises big who can reap the
advantage of scale manufacturing like Samsung or Apple in mobile manufacturing.
The Government
recognised the limitation of the NPE-2019 in incentivising establishment of
real large-scale manufacturing of electronic products. The new Scheme
‘Production Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI) for Large Scale Electronics
Manufacturing’ notes very rightly “there is a need for a mechanism to
compensate for the manufacturing disabilities’ which are of the order of ‘8.5%
to 11%’ ‘vis-Ã -vis other major manufacturing economies.’
The PLI scheme offers
incentive of 4% to 6% on incremental sales of mobile phones and eight specified
electronics components (e.g. discrete semiconductor devises like transistors,
printed circuit boards etc.) manufactured in India to the approved companies.
The PLI scheme is majorly targeted to get iconic mobile set manufactures to
India and is expected to cost a total of Rs. 48000 crores over next five years.
An Assessment of
India’s Electronics Manufacturing Policies
Global electronics
hardware industry is the largest growing manufacturing industry as it produces
electronics which are the change agents to transform production of all other
goods and also delivery of services. The hardware industry has grown to be over
$2.5 trillion and is expected to be the biggest growing industry for many more
years.
India, however, has not
been able to catch on the electronics manufacturing bandwagon. India’s 3% odd
share is in the turnover of the electronics products. If the value added in the
electronics hardware industry is taken into account, India’s share in global
value added in the electronic hardware only is still smaller.
Largest value addition
in the electronics hardware industry is concentrated in a few manufacturers who
own most of the patents and are the master designers of the electronic
products. In the personal computers and like products- ipads, notebooks
etc.-Apple, IBM, Lenovo, HP dominates. In the mobile manufacturing, Samsung,
Huawei, Apple and Oppo has more than 60% share globally. In the 5G
technology-based instrument manufacturing, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm, Huawei
dominate the world. Amongst the
semi-conductor manufacturing companies, Intel, SK Hynix, TSMC, Micron
Technology, Qualcomm, have huge dominance in the world.
It is unpleasant but
true that in none of the electronics hardware manufacturing fields cited above,
there is not a single Indian company is the top10 companies of the world. This
should be a sobering thought for us. It is possibly recognised by Indian policy
makers as the NPE-2019 and PLI-2020 both don’t talk about creating Indian
electronics manufacturing behemoths in India, the types of TCS, Infosys etc.
which we have in the information technology services space.
The only rightful
strategy to root electronics manufacturing industry in India is to invite the
global giants to come and manufacture in India. These global giants get most of
their products manufactured in Asia, most prominently in China, Taiwan, South
Korea, ASIAN countries and now Vietnam. They would come to manufacture in India
only if they can manufacture their products, for both consumption in India and
exports, competitively and make a little more profit than they do somewhere
else. This calls for a policy strategy to study each segment of electronics
manufacturing and what would it take for the leader companies to shift to India.
The Government can then take a view and offer the compensating package to make
one-two leading companies in each segment to shift base to India. The PLI
Scheme is a right step in this direction but much more needs to be aggressively
and fast.
National Software Promotion
Policy
India has strong
Information Technology Companies. India is the largest exporter of IT services
in the world. However, when it comes to software products, India’s performance
is as bad as electronic products manufacturing. The National Policy on Software
Products (NSP-2019), a first policy targeting software products as such,
adopted in 2019, makes a telling statement that contribution of software
products in the Indian IT and IT enabled Services was only $7.1 billion out of
total estimated revenue of $168 billion. The export of software products was
still bad at only $2.3 billion out of total exports of $126 billion, giving
India a share of only .5% of the global software market. The worst part was
that India imported software products of $10 billion, which made India a net
importer of software products.
Software or the coding
is the second pillar of the digital revolution. Indian are considered geniuses
in the coding. Most of the companies in Silicon Valley have Indian engineers to
do the coding. Indian companies have also developed a few world scale software
products. In the banking space, Indian companies have developed software
products like Finacle and TCS BaNCS which are in top 10 software products. Yet,
when it comes to top 10 or 25 software companies of the world, Indian companies
do not figure anywhere.
The NSP-2019 applies
hackneyed formula of promoting industrialisation in India by customising it to
the software industry- nurturing 10000 technology start-ups, creating a talent
pool of 1 million IT professionals, setting up a single window platform for
facilitation of Indian software product industry, allowing set off of tax
payment on the investment made etc.
The electronics
manufacturing and software industries are the best value creators in the world
of manufacturing and development today. These industries are promoted by iconic
technology entrepreneurs and needs only an enabling environment from the
governments. The top companies dominate the world of electronics manufacturing
and software development and they employ the best brains. The type of
interventions and support offered in the National Policy on Software Product
might help some small enterprises to write software for local use. This is
important and helpful but any hope that such enterprises can produce world
beating software products would be entirely misplaced.
Lot of global companies
have set up their software development establishments in India considering the
special talent which Indians have in writing codes. The Government should not
come in the way of these companies by capping their royalties. The Government
would rather provide infrastructural support and enabling environment for more
of the software development, like IT services, outsourced to Indians. It might
lead to these companies relocating to India eventually.
It is time for major
Indian IT companies and non-IT companies to get into the lucrative business of
software products development, including software for machines, data centres,
cloud computing and so on. Likewise, these Indian companies should go into the
business of delivering software as service and other related services. Indian
government should think of killer incentive scheme like the Software Technology
Park Scheme. The big players need to be incentivised and supported for India to
capture the software products markets like we did for information technology
services.
Policies for Promoting Information
Technology Services
Information technology
or IT services are business services performed from an away-location or by
stationing the personnel of IT services company in the premises of the services
outsourcing company. India captured the opportunity offered by fast and cheaper
data transmission over distances which allowed the business services to be
delivered in the US and other countries by IT companies located in India.
India’s cheaper and
educated workforce provided the killer advantage. Lot of new technocrat
entrepreneurs helped seize this moment for India- Infosys, HCLTech for example.
Some of the traditional economy companies- TCS, Wipro for example, diversified
in the IT services space.
Government created
right policy environment. Software Technology Parks were set up which provided
faster data transmission facility, the most differentiating factor for
establishing successful enterprises and also other technological
infrastructural services like data storage facilities. The Government gave one
big fiscal concession- income tax profits exemption. These policies were
adequate to set Indian entrepreneurs set up world class companies and capture
one third of global business for India.
If the Government were
to provide the policy and infrastructure support of the type offered under the
Software Products Policy and the National Electronics Policy for the IT
Services Export Promotion, there was a very good chance that we would not have
seen development of IT services giants which we see today in India. As the IT
services business is suited to both large and small businesses, the Software
Technology Parks offered their services to both large and small businesses.
Small businesses also thrived in this space. Electronics hardware and Software
Products, by their nature, are more suited for the large- scale enterprises.
Polices for IT
Infrastructure
Digital economy
infrastructure is built on whatever medium- fibre optics, satellites, spectrum
etc.- can carry and store data fast and in humungous volumes. In India, digital
infrastructure has developed most on spectrum using mobile telephony. Most data
are transmitted on spectrum in India as fibre optics have got relatively a
short shrift, though it seems to be receiving attention now. Likewise, we have
constrained use of satellites in moving data.
We have fallen into
another trap in un-imaginatively using the digital infrastructure for
digitalising economy. Like excessive pricing of land became a constraint on
development of industries, excessive pricing of spectrum, especially after 2G
scam, is coming in the way of adoption of digital technologies and would most
likely constraint use of 5G technologies as well.
National Digital
Communications Policy 2018
The Government has
adopted National Digital Communications Policy 2018 (NDCP-2018) recognising
quite well that ‘digital infrastructure and services are increasingly emerging
as key enablers and critical determinants of a country’s growth and
well-being.’ The digital communications
policy is extremely important to achieve two big goals- transforming Indian
economy into a digital economy by digitalising production and distribution of
goods and services and second, by transforming individuals and households, the
society, into a digital society.
The NDCP-2018 focuses
on second objective and by and large ignores the first objective. Its vision
statement states ‘to fulfil the information and communication needs of citizens
and enterprises through the establishment of a ubiquitous, resilient, secure,
accessible and affordable Digital Communication Infrastructure and Services,
and in the process, support India’s transition to a digital empowered economy
and society.’ It sets its goals in terms of providing digital infrastructure
services to people- universal broadband connectivity at 50 mbps to every
citizen, 1 gbps connectivity to all gram panchayats, 100 mbps broadband on
demand to all key development institutions, fixed line broadband access to 50%
of households, unique mobile subscriber density of 55 by 2020 and 65 by 2022, deployment
of public wi-fi hotspots, and connectivity to all uncovered areas. There is no
mention of enabling businesses to get digital infrastructure services to
transform the production of goods and services digitally.
The policy talks about
establishing a National Broadband Mission but ‘to secure universal broadband
access through four different nets- BharatNet, GramNet, NagarNet and JanWifi.
It also talks about Fibre First Initiative to take fibre to the home, and to
key development institutions in Tier I, II and III towns and rural clusters.
Grudgingly, it mentions to every enterprise as well.
The whole NDCP-2018 is
welfare oriented and not business oriented. The global enterprises which have
developed and own digital technologies are making enormous amount of money.
Indian corporates do not have these digital technologies. The policy should
have focussed on how to get these technology majors to bring their technologies
by investing in India to create the most advanced and functional digital
infrastructure in the country. There is mention of goal of attracting $100
billion of foreign investment. The requirement is possibly manifold and merely
making such general statement do not get the FDI. We need to create customised
solutions like the PLI initiative to get electronics manufactured in India. In
fact, if we set our auction terms more business-like, getting world class
cutting age digital infrastructure constructed in India would cost the government
nothing.
Getting Fibre
and Satellite Infrastructure Right
Market Analysis Group,
IDATE conducted a survey in 2019 ranking the countries on the basis of homes
and buildings connected to the fibre (FTTH &FTTB). Cut off criterion was
minimum 1% of homes and buildings connected to Fibre. It found 64 countries in
the world meeting this minimum threshold.
These countries had
1.2% to 95.7% homes and buildings connected to fibre. UAE, Qatar, Singapore,
China, South Korea, Hongkong, Japan, Mauritius and New Zealand were top 10
countries with fibre penetration exceeding 53%.
India, unfortunately,
was found not to have even 1% homes and buildings connected and therefore did
not make it to the list of 64 countries included in the global ranking. That
shows the pathetic state of optical fibre penetration in India.
There are two
imperatives which make fibre the choice of digital infrastructure creation.
First, the cost of digital services delivered through fibre should be
competitive to the cost of digital services delivered through spectrum. Second,
it should be possible to make fibre reach homes and buildings.
The fibre cost is
pittance. However, laying fibre in Indian conditions is quite time consuming
and costly. Piped Natural Gas (PNG) had the same disadvantage compared to LPG
cylinders. However, two policy decisions smoothened the transition to PNG in
cities of India. First, transition of buses and other modes to transport to CNG
by the same concessionaire brought considerable business and pricing of PNG was
just about the same as LPG. Most importantly, the laying of PNG and CNG
infrastructure, which is far more demanding than Optical Fibre, was
administratively facilitated. Likewise, appropriate policy incentives in the
form of all digital services being delivered through fibre, reducing the cost
of laying fibre infrastructure and facilitating its laying would be extremely
necessarily if at all we can realise the policy goal of Fibre to All expressed
in the NDCP-2018.
Satellite business is
not reserved as a public sector monopoly under the Industrial Development and
Regulation Act (IDRA-1951). However, by means of some administrative decision,
private sector has not been allowed in the satellite business. ISRO and other
public institutions have done a fabulous job of making and launching satellites
providing excellent quality at most competitive costs. However, not allowing
the private sector has constrained the use of satellites in expansion of
digital infrastructure in India.
Government of India has
recently permitted private sector in the satellite business. It should be hoped
that this decision would be allowed to be implemented without any constraints
and backroom controls. Indian entrepreneurs would soon make India a satellite
manufacture and launching hub of the world.
The combination of
fibre to every building (home and business), 5G spectrum and satellites for any
digital application should help India create world class digital infrastructure
to pave the way for digitalisation of Indian economy, businesses and
households.
DIGITAL GOVERNANCE
The fundamental
building blocks of digital age- the chip, the code and the internet-
representing digital technologies, software programming and digital
communication will not work to transform the economy into a digitalised economy
unless the raw material of every digital good or service i.e. the data is
allowed to be used freely and on commercial terms by the businesses and the
digital businesses are allowed to operate as freely as the physical businesses
are.
There are two pieces of
proposed policies and legislations which have attracted very wide attention in
this regard- the Personal Data Protection bill, 2019 and draft National
E-Commerce Policy. Both measures have been highly controversial. The Personal
Data Protection Bill is still to become a law and the E-Commerce Policy has not
been adopted as yet, though some of its restrictive provisions are reflected in
the FDI Policy. RBI had also come up in 2018 with some rule to mandate
retention of financial data in India.
Fundamentality of Data
Creation, Storage and Use for Digital Economy
Binary bites ‘0 and 1’
or ‘off and on’ in electronic current converted every digit, every letter,
every picture, every sound and almost every way in which the humans thought,
expressed and communicated. All the numbers, words, pictures, sound bites,
information, expressions and everything else constructed in bites are data. For
digital economy, data is everything- it is the input, it is the process of
production and it is the output. Economy- the production, distribution and
consumption of goods and services- cannot be digitalised without extensive creation
and use of data.
Humans are factors of
production and humans are consumers of most goods and services produced in the
economy. Digitalisation offers a fundamental reset opportunity from the
production systems of the industrial economy. Industrial economy was most
competitive and productive producing goods at scale. This led to mass
production of almost everything- shirts, cars, refrigerators, you name
anything. Humans have enormous subtle and small variation in physical
parameters even though they are from the same species. The mass production
could afford only fewer variations. Shirts could be produced in three or four
sizes. If the producers tried to make more variations, the scale and
competitiveness was lost. In the process, the products could not be customised
to each and every individual taking care of the precise specifications suited
to him or her. Customisation was the lost cause in the industrial revolution.
Digital revolution-
digitalisation of goods and services produced- brings back the customisation as
the key differentiator of the products and services for every individual. Like
mass production was the winner for industrial economies, customisation is the
winner for digital economies.
Customisation requires
data of personal attributes- precise measures of all the dimensions of foot for
making fully fitting and comfortable shoes for each individual, likings and
preferences of individuals for delivering the products desired, even producing
a car which meets specific needs of an individual or family. The digital economy
works, thrives and prospers by using the personal data.
Personal data can,
however, be misused to target or manipulate a person or a group with similar
attributes. Personal data of identity, health and other sensitive nature can be
hacked or misused to cause financial and other harms to the person concerned.
It is absolutely necessary that such misuse, manipulation and harm is
prevented.
The absolute
indispensability of personal data for digitalisation of economy and the
uncompromisable state obligation of preventing the misuse of personal data is
the most intricate conflict in the march of digital economy. How a nation or
society arrives at a solution which achieves both the objectives and creates a
balance will determine how it succeeds or fails in reaping the advantages of
digitalisation of economy.
Data Legislation and
Regulation in India
In India,
unfortunately, the value and critical advantage of data for digitalisation of
the economy did not get much appreciation. Protection of personal data, instead,
got all the policy attention, most specifically after 2016.
Protection of Sensitive
Personal Data (SPD) was sought to be ensured by Information Technology
(Reasonable security practices and procedures and sensitive personal data or
information) Rules 2011 framed under the Information Technology Act, 2000.
These Rules defined what sensitive personal data is and setting out the
obligations of body corporates in collection, use and transfer of such personal
data. There were no serious restrictions on the use of the personal data by the
body corporates in the SPD Rules.
The Government constituted
a Committee of Experts under the Chairmanship of Justice B N Srikrishna in July
2017 ‘to deliberate on a data protection framework for India’. While the preamble
to the terms of reference of the Srikrishna Committee referred to the ‘need to
ensure growth of the digital economy’, the ToRs were governed by the utmost
importance of ‘keeping personal data of citizens secure and protected’. The two
specific ToRs were also ‘to study various issues relating to data protection in
India’ and ‘to make specific suggestions for consideration of the Central
Government on principles to be considered for data protection in India and
suggest a draft data protection bill.’
No wonder the Report of
the Srikrishna Committee made not a single recommendation on how to seize the
opportunity to digitalise Indian economy by using data as the critical
advantage. All the recommendations related on how to define and deal with the
personal data. The Committee also recommended a comprehensive Personal Data
Protection Bill 2018.
The Bill recommended by
the Srikrishna Committee was examined by the Government taking in consideration
numerous comments received from people and institutions. The Government made
certain changes and introduced the Personal Data Protection Bill 2019 in the
Parliament for adoption. The 2019 Bill is far more restrictive in use of
personal data than the 2018 Bill. The Bill is still under consideration of the
Joint Select Committee of the Parliament, where it is still under
consideration.
There are four major
issues the way Indian Government has chosen to deal with the issue of data:
First, the world of
data is being looked only from a very narrow lense of personal data. The larger
world of data, which includes ‘non-personal data’ and also non-personal aspects
of personal data is being given a short shrift.
Second, all the energy
and efforts are focused only on protection of personal data at every stage-
collection, storage and use- as a matter of privacy and as a private property. There
is no thought and strategy for using data as a matter of critical advantage for
building a competitive and rich digital economy for seizing the opportunity
offered by digitalisation of production of goods and services.
Third, the fundamental
construct of Constitution for protecting privacy of citizens from the
Government, which is part of the fundamental rights, is being sought to be
turned its head by seeking to exclude private businesses from use of personal
data while giving overriding access to the government to not only personal data
of persons but also non-personal data of businesses.
Fourth, in the virtual
world of today, there are no national boundaries for storage and access to the
stored data. The over nationalistic view about localisation of data would only
hurt our interests.
The US does not
restrict the use of personal data for businesses purposes, except where it is
really a matter of privacy defined very precisely. The EU has also come up with
extensive regulations to encourage free use of non-personal data. It is time
India also considers a law for the use of data, including personal data, by
businesses to provide competitive advantages to Indian businesses, in building
the digital economy. Sensitive or critical personal data needs to be defined
very narrowly, something the access to or use of which can cause real harm to
the person concerned. There is nothing sensitive about a bank account number or
caste or religion of a person. There is no need to define these as sensitive
personal data.
The Bill propose a
massive administrative machinery and elaborate procedures for obtaining
consent/permission of ‘data principal’ for use of personal data. The bill, if
enacted would usher in India a regime worse than the licence permit raj which
destroyed private enterprise in industrialisation process of India. There
should be more liberal and easier process of obtaining consent of person
concerned for use of personal data. A willingly provided information while
filling up an application or interacting otherwise should suffice and it should
be required to obtain a consent which is ‘free, informed, specific, clear and
capable of being withdrawn’. Misuse of privacy data must be as punishable as
breach of privacy is today.
The whole exercise of
enacting a personal data protection bill should be replaced by a holistic data
use policy or law for facilitating digitalisation of Indian economy protecting
legitimate privacy concerns from harm.
E-commerce Policy
Proposal
Trade and Commerce is,
like any other service sector- accounting and finance, banking, transportation
etc.- is an economic service. Trade and Commerce is, like many other services-
banking or accounting- extremely amenable to digitalisation. Trade and
Commerce, transacted digitally- the e-commerce- has enormous advantages- cost,
time, distance etc.- which is the world over, disrupting the traditional trade
and commerce industry.
There is no legitimate
rationale for having a separate law or policy for e-commerce as there is no legitimate
rationale for having any separate law or policy for e-banking or e-accounting
or business process outsourcing and the like. However, Indian policy makers
have been sensitive to foreign companies selling the foreign products in India
in traditional brick and mortar model or the e-commerce mode. Likewise, Indian
policy makers have been quite sensitive about permitting foreign companies to
invest in trade and commerce business segment in India, again both in brick and
mortar Indian businesses and e-commerce.
The Department of
Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), renamed the Department of Promotion of
Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), has been in charge of the Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) policy. India has evolved a restrictive FDI policy for trade
and commerce sector over the years. There are distinctions in terms of
wholesale trade and retail trade. There are distinctions in terms of
multi-brand and single brand stores. There are distinctions in terms of brick
and mortar trade and commerce and e-commerce. There are distinctions of
platform e-commerce companies and own product inventory/direct selling
e-commerce companies. There are also numerous conditionalities- on local
content, minimum investment amount, export obligation, localities where it can
be established, extent of foreign ownership and all. The policy is quite
complex.
For no good reason, the
DPIIT decided to take over the mantle of controlling digital aspects of
e-commerce as well, most notably data. In Feb. 2019, it came up with a Draft
National E-Commerce Policy with the theme ‘India’s Data for India’s Development’.
The Policy is hardly an e-commerce policy. It is out and out a trade data
control and regulation policy. It aims to ‘regulate cross-border data flow’,
lays down ‘conditions to be adhered to by business entities which have access
to sensitive data of Indian users stored abroad’, bans ‘sharing of such data
with third party entities, even with customer consent, mandates ‘e-commerce companies
to ensure that all product shipments from other countries are channelised
through the Customs route’, proposes creation of industrial standards for smart
devices and IoT equipment’ and so on.
The proposed e-commerce
policy transgresses the domain of Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology
(MeiTy) heavily as data regulation, irrespective of sector, is their domain.
The policy is so excessively restrictively that it amounts to worst form of protectionism
in trade and commerce which India had before 1990 in the industrial field and successfully
demolished after 1991.
The inherent
contractions and excessive protectionism proposed in the Draft e-commerce
policy 2019 have not allowed it to progress much. The Government indicated that
it was working on another draft and that alternative draft is still in works.
There is an absolutely
no need for the Government to frame any e-commerce policy to regulate data and digitalisation
of trade and commerce services. The policy draft should be simply scrapped.
CONCLUSION
Digital revolution,
enabled by three key technological innovations of the chip, the code and the
internet, is sweeping through the world currently, transforming every business.
Services of various kinds- trade and commerce, accounting, banking, outsourced
processing, entertainment, banking and so on- have got transformed massively
already. Coronavirus has given further disruptive push to digitalisation and
delivery-consumption of services digitally. It is fairly evident that many
products would get transformed in services and would be digitally delivered.
Digital revolution is
also transforming production and consumption of many agricultural and
industrial goods. There is increasing use of chips and codes in the manufacture
of physical goods to control and govern services which such physical goods-
cars, refrigerators etc. deliver. With Internet of Things (IoT) also a reality
now, connectedness of physical machines and equipment will further massively
digitalise physical goods, machines and equipment.
Digital technologies-
the chip, the code and the internet- have massive competitive advantage over industrial
technologies and therefore the economies which advance beyond industrial age
technologies to digital age technologies would be the winners in future. Those
economies which ignores digital technologies or are inefficient converters
would surely lose out.
India has not been very
forward looking and successful in the technological advancement based on the
two of the three critical technologies- the chip-making and the code-writing.
This paper brings out poor progress which India has made in production of
digital technological products and also basic software writing. Not a single
Indian company figures in top 30 companies in digital technologies.
India, however, has
taken very good advantage of evolution of internet and has been able to garner a
share of more than 1/3rd in Information Technology (IT) services.
The production and delivery of business services using IT and Internet is the
largest export earner for India. The IT services industry employs millions of
Indians. IT services make sure that India’s current account does not go out of
hand even while importing more than 80% of its crude oil consumption from
abroad.
India has been flirting
with very restrictive data control and management policies. The Draft Data Protection
Law and Draft E-Commerce polies exemplify these starkly. These proposals make
India an overly inward looking/protectionist and brings the hated licence
permit raj in a worse form. To digitalise Indian economy and to wrest the best
advantage in digital transformation of the World, India must scrap both these
proposals and bring a modern liberal and facilitative law for data management and
use, including personal data. Therein lies whether India will miss the digital
revolution or capture it. India missed the industrial revolution by coming on to
it very late after opposing it for many decades. The same mistake should not be
repeated in case of the opportunity thrown in by the digital revolution.
SUBHASH CHANDRA GARG
NEW DELHI 19/07/2020
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