Risk of Corona like Virus Terrorism and Passive Spread Will Transform Globalisation

Risk of Virus Terrorism and Passive Spread Will Transform Globalisation

A virus-terrorist can be more lethal and effective than a fidayeen. Corona virus carrying person is an absolutely normal and healthy agent in the initial phase of infection and can pass-off as a normal flue affected person even in later stages of infection. A corona virus terrorist can do its job very effectively without anyone realising by simply moving around in a group and leaving virus bombs in the places visited. Corona virus could spread to more than 180 countries in the world in short time of about two months. A number of rich and advanced countries- the US, Italy, Spain and several other countries in Europe- are reeling under the impact of corona-virus, with more than 20000 people dead in the world so far. These facts would indicate the potency of this virus-weapon, if used in a terror or guerrilla operation.

The world is currently under an unprecedented lock-down. This has been done to identify and isolate all those persons who are carrying the deadly virus inside them. The central thought behind the lockdown strategy is to first segregate the families from each other and then divide all families into two groups of uninfected and infected. Once, this is done convincingly, it is possible to permit normal economic and social activities between the identified class of the uninfected. The infected ones can remain in isolation/ treatment until they fully recover to join the class of the uninfected.  

Some countries like South Korea and Japan have followed a different version of this strategy. These countries have tested and are testing every potentially affected person and isolating all persons identified as infected, leaving the rest of the population to carry on with their normal life. This did not require these countries to lock-down the entire country and confine every family to their homes, as has been done by India and many other countries.

Movement of goods and people all over the world- from their countries of origin to everywhere else is the globalisation. Trade to GDP ratio for the world as a whole has been around 60% in last few years. It means 60% of the global output gets either imported in or exported from the countries. There are more than 260 million immigrant people globally who live in a country other than the country of their birth. Today’s world, thanks to trade and immigration, is a highly globalised world. This globalised world sees enormous movement of people and goods from countries of origin to countries of destination. Such movement of goods and people can be an easy tool for the virus-terrorists to carry out its evil design.  

The world today is focussed on containing the corona virus. Identify and segregate strategy is designed to achieve this containment objective. While there is a lot of uncertainty as of now, it should be fair to expect that the world will succeed in containing the corona pandemic with this strategy. Some countries might escape with minor bruises, while some may suffer a lot of damage (in terms of loss of GDP/income and deaths of people).

Some countries, like Brazil, have announced their intention to re-start full economic activities in a couple of days. Others will also do once they are successful in identifying the affected and confining them securely.

India can also follow a calibrated strategy of opening up. At the end of one week from the commencement of lock-down i.e. from 31^st of March, India can identify specific villages and cities which have no case of corona infection. If there is no corona infected person in a village or a city on 31^st March, it would be worth taking the risk of extending the Lakshmanrekha in these identified villages/ cities from home boundaries to the village/city gates. Economic and social activities within each such village and city should be permitted from 1^st April, 2020. Of course, the interaction of such uninfected villages and cities with outside their Lakshmanrekha can continue to be governed by present restrictions.

After another week (say around 7^th of April), the households in the villages and cities, which had any infected person as on 31^st March, may be divided in two categories- unaffected and affected. The households which have no one affected person in such villages and cities can then be allowed to carry out their economic activities and mix amongst themselves within the confines of their villages and cities. This would leave only those homes which have even a single person affected quarantined. At this point of time, restrictions on the villages and cities which were found to be totally unaffected on 31^st March can be allowed to carry on their business and social activities outside their villages and cities.

At the end of 21 days on 14^th April, all Indians, except the quarantined families, should be allowed to carry on their business and social activities, which, in a way, would signal the end of lockdown.

It should be fair to expect that most of the world will move beyond corona in next two months. This episode, however, is likely to instil deep suspicions about movement of goods and humans, most particularly, such movement from one country to another. Advanced economies are quite likely to suspect movement of virus-terrorists and passive carriers as much as, if not more, they suspect movement of terrorists and suicide-bombers- the fidayeen.

Most countries in the world take active measures to guard themselves against the movement of germs. All of us have noted the contents of the form filled in at the time of immigration. Most countries require visitors to declare, amongst other, whether they have been to any agricultural field or been in the vicinity of animals or are carrying any soil or raw fruits, vegetables or wood. This requirement was built in to guard against potential alien germs being brought to which the local plants and animals in such a country may not have immunity.

A person carrying corona virus or corona like virus or any other virus, we don’t know about or which can come into existence in future, whether deliberately (virus terrorist) or unknowingly (a passive killer) will be a big threat to the receiving country. Likewise, goods being brought into a country, which might carry such a virus, will also be a big threat to the receiving country.

This risk is going to be too big to be left without being effectively eliminated.

Humanity does not know how to eliminate this risk effectively. In situations like this when you do not understand the risk, the most likely response is ‘don’t take the risk’.

Any country which reaches this conclusion (there might be many such countries) is likely to impose major restrictions on arrival of non-residents- which might include total ban on people arriving from or travelling via some specific countries. The least one can expect is that the non-immigrants arriving in such countries will be subjected to medical tests and/or certifications (which would certainly be more demanding than the security done presently).

The airline industry is also likely to undergo massive transformation. Most aircrafts today have seating in very close proximity with no dividers between passengers. The economy class for international travel may disappear or undergo massive changes to ensure that no two passengers contaminate each other. Arrival halls and the system of granting entry will also undergo massive changes. Travel and other related industries might also receive a lot of beating, at least for a few quarters before the confidence comes back. Packaging and screening processes for import and export goods might also undergo major changes to eliminate the risk of unintended transport of viruses.

There are likely to some gainers of this massive crisis as well. Globalisation in the form of movement of people will suffer but globalisation of financial and technologically delivered services will advance further. While travel in person is likely to suffer large setback, travel industry might regroup to deliver travel experience digitally and/or organise such travel in more cohesive groups. Hotel industry will have to re-invent itself to assure the guests credibly of no risk to them of virus infection.

It will be legitimate to expect that the digital economy will receive the biggest boost. While physical person to person meetings for business are likely to get massively reduced, digital person to person meetings are likely to see a big boom. Global economy of future would be majorly a digital economy. Possible advancements in telecom technologies (5G, 6G and so on) and information technologies, most particularly artificial intelligence and 3D technologies, will lead this transformation and define the global economy. India must reorganise itself to take advantage of this incoming transformation in the global economy. We should work to acquire that competitive advantage.

We can help the world in containing and eliminating the risk of virus terrorism and transmission. We can lead in the transformation of global economy in a digital economy. This will benefit the world. This will benefit us.

SUBHASH CHANDRA GARG

NEW DELHI 26/03/2020