Subhash Chandra Garg- Economy, Finance and Fiscal Policy Strategist

Is Our Fiscal and Monetary Response to COVID-19 Risk to Economy Good Enough? ECONOMIC DISRUPTION OF COVID-19 Measures taken to contain and eliminate passive transmission risk, more than the manifested active risk of the COVID-19 virus to human factors of production- both the owners/entrepreneurs and workers- have disrupted the economic and financial systems the world over. Few countries like South Korea and Japan decided to track down the carriers- symptomatic or asymptomatic of COVID-19 virus and isolate them. Most countries did not have this ability to do so or were too overwhelmed by the severity of risk. These countries decided to isolate every family in their homes to find out who is a carrier and who is not. India also decided to lock down every human being last week in their home to contain and eliminate this risk of virus transmission. This meant that almost entire production system also got locked down. You need human labour to produce goods and services in fa...

Risk of Virus Terrorism and Passive Spread Will Transform Globalisation A virus-terrorist can be more lethal and effective than a fidayeen. Corona virus carrying person is an absolutely normal and healthy agent in the initial phase of infection and can pass-off as a normal flue affected person even in later stages of infection. A corona virus terrorist can do its job very effectively without anyone realising by simply moving around in a group and leaving virus bombs in the places visited. Corona virus could spread to more than 180 countries in the world in short time of about two months. A number of rich and advanced countries- the US, Italy, Spain and several other countries in Europe- are reeling under the impact of corona-virus, with more than 20000 people dead in the world so far. These facts would indicate the potency of this virus-weapon, if used in a terror or guerrilla operation. The world is currently under an unprecedented lock-down. This has been done to identify ...

MANAGING ECONOMIC FALLOUT OF CORONAVIRUS-19 Ten Most Urgent Measures which the Government Must Take Right Now Our economy has been jolted and disrupted majorly by the Coronavirus-19. A large part of the economy- major labour-intensive industries like construction, small and medium industry other than those producing essential goods, services like transport, tourism, hotels, sports, entertainment and several others- have practically collapsed or are under shut-down. Fear has overtaken financial markets, accentuated by the massive sell-off by the foreign investors. So far payment systems and asset management industry like mutual funds have not defaulted but it might not be far off. Besides the health workers and establishments, telecommunications and information technology industry has rendered yeomen service to keep whatever industrial and services economy is functioning and to keep Indians safer from spreading of Coronoavirus-19. This is the time to take every possible m...

USE PUBLIC SECTOR EQUITY TO SAVE EQUITY MARKETS (meeting the challenge of Corona virus induced earthquake in Indian markets) Equity prices are falling like ninepins all over the world. India cannot remain unaffected. Indian stock markets have lost over 35% of their market capitalisation in last three weeks amounting to over Rs. 40 lakh Crore, which incidentally is more than the entire budget of the Government of India for 2020-21. COVID-19 has shaken confidence of investors in equity. Many see it as the end of the world. They want to simply sell at whatever price equities can be sold. Foreign investors have sold over Rs. 30 thousand Crore of stocks in last 15 days in India. They were owning over Rs. 30 lakh Crore of stocks before the desperate sell-off started. There wealth is at least Rs. 10 lakh Crore lower to not more than Rs. 20 lakh Crore now. As most of these foreign investors are from the western world (though deploying wealth of non-resident Indians as well)- North...

RESPONDING TO COVID-19 CRISIS Odisha cyclone in 1999 killed over 10000 people. Cyclones Phailin and cyclone Fani, which hit east coast of India in 2013 and 2019, were almost of the same severity, but the death toll did not cross even 100. Reason was simple. India understood cyclones much better and knew how to manage it. Better information available about the cyclone- its onset, path, speed,   intensity, direction, eye etc. was used to take all the necessary steps to meet its challenge- preventing people from going into the sea for fishing, shifting people to specially constructed cyclone shelters, stocking   adequate food and care, marshalling all response and restoration teams to attend to the devastation and the like. There was no panic. Better preparation and management of the risk saved the day for us. COVID-19 is a new virus. Its’ cure and antidote are not known. When it struck, even basic facts like how does it spread and how fast it can spread were also not ...