State of India's Fiscal Deficit and Debt
State
of Fiscal Deficit and Debt of Government of India
FISCAL
DEFICIT
Defining
fiscal deficit correctly
1. Fiscal
Deficit represents Net Borrowings by the Government in a year. Difference
between the Debt and Liabilities at the beginning and at the end of a Financial
Year also represents Net Borrowings during the year. Fiscal Deficit should
therefore equal change in the Debt and Liabilities during the Financial Year. All
government expenditure, revenues and debts are required to be carried out
through the Consolidated Fund of India (CFI). If it is done so, the fiscal
deficit of the Government should equal to the additional debt incurred during
the year, all recorded in the CFI.
2. Unfortunately,
all these transactions are not recorded through the CFI all the time. Some debt/liabilities
are not assumed outside the CFI- either in the Public Account or totally
outside the formal accounting system of the Government i.e. outside CFI and
Public Account. Some liabilities related transactions are recorded by deducting
a corresponding debt receipt from the expenditure/ investment made. Such
transactions are described popularly as Below the Line, Off Budget etc. Equity
infusion in the Public Sector Banks, during last few years, has been done by deducting
debt received by the Government of India in from the PSBs from the equity
investments made. As a result, there is no impact of such expenditure/investment
on fiscal deficit but the debt and liabilities stock of the Government goes up.
During 2004-09, Bonds were issued to Oil Companies and Fertiliser Companies and
accounted for in the Public Account (instead of CFI) to pay off oil/fertiliser cost
under-recoveries. These transactions also had similar impact- fiscal deficit
was not affected but debt/liabilities went up. For some years now, the
Government of India is issuing what is described in the budget papers as Fully
Serviced Bonds (FSBs). These bonds are raised outside the CFI and Public Account
and used from special purpose vehicles outside budget/ accounts to pay off the government
expenditure/ subsidy. Interest and principals of these liabilities are serviced
by the Government at the time of payment. These bonds don’t enter into
calculations of either fiscal deficit or the debt and liabilities of the
Government. Finally, the Government has been paying off food subsidy liability
by providing cash from the National Small Savings Fund (NSSF). Such transactions
have the effect of reducing fiscal deficit and not showing up in the Debt and
Liabilities of the Government.
3. The
fiscal deficit, stated in the budget papers, is exclusive of these four types
of variations. Let us describe the fiscal deficit so calculated and stated as
the headline fiscal deficit. Real fiscal deficit, in such a case, would be
headline fiscal deficit plus the four types of liabilities described above.
Actual fiscal deficit in
2017-18
4. Actual
numbers of fiscal transactions are available only up to the year 2017-18. The
actual state of fiscal deficit during 2017-18 is summarised:
a. Fiscal
Deficit of the Government of India, reported as actuals, in the Government of
India Budget Documents was Rs. 591062 crore in the Financial Year 2017-18. This
is 3.46 or 3.5% of the nominal GDP of Rs. 170.95 lakh crore. This is the headline
fiscal deficit of 2017-18.
b. We
have to add the following to this fiscal deficit number:
i. Rs.
80000 crore of investment was made in the equity of public sector banks (PSBs),
deducting from this investment the receipt of Rs. 80000 crore from the very
PSBs by way of their investment in the special securities issued by the
Government of India.
ii. Rs.
65000 crore of food subsidies were not paid. Instead, FCI was given cash of Rs.
65000 crore as loan from National Small Savings Fund (NSSF).
iii. Rs.
3105 crore of Fully Serviced Bonds (FSBs) were issued to pay for the cost of
irrigation projects under the Ministry of Water Resources, River Development
and Ganga Rejuvenation. Rs. 4000 crore were allowed to be raised by the
Agencies under the Ministry of Power for paying grant portion under Deen Dayal
Gram Jyoti and Saubhagya schemes. Rs. 7330 crore of subvention support under
the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana implemented by the Department of Rural
Development were also paid through the FSBs. FSBs of an amount of Rs. 660 crore
was allowed to be raised for covering similar liabilities of Inland Waterways
Authority of India (IWAI) under the Ministry of Shipping. In all, FSBs of a
total amount of Rs. 15095 crore were issued to cover the real revenue and
capital expenditure obligations of the Government of India.
c. These
three expenditures together made up for Rs. 160095 crore or .94% of the GDP of
2017-18. Adding these expenditures to the headline fiscal deficit of Rs. 591062
crore, takes the actual Fiscal Deficit for the year 2017-18 at Rs. 751157
crore, which was 4.39% of the nominal GDP.
Fiscal deficit in 2018-19
5. Actual
accounts for the year 2018-19 are still not published. However, the Controller
General of Accounts (CGA) has published provisional accounts for the year
2018-19.
6. Headline
fiscal deficit of FY 2018-19 as per the provisional accounts released by CGA is
Rs. 645367 crore. Thus, the headline fiscal deficit was 3.39% or 3.4% of the
GDP of 190.10 lakh crore in line with the RE of 2018-19 in the budget papers of
2019-20.
7. Following
three types of expenditures should be added to this headline fiscal deficit for
the year 2018-19, like in case of 2017-18, i.e. equity investments in PSBs and
EXIM Bank made during the year 2018-19, food subsidy expenditure met in cash
loans from the NSSF and revenue and capital expenditure under various programme
by issuing fully service bonds.
a. The
Government provided a total of Rs. 1.06 lakh crore by way of “recapitalisation
bonds” to public sector banks, including Exim Bank.
b. Further,
Rs. 70000 crore was provided from the NSSF to FCI to cover the food subsidy
expenditure.
c. Issuances
of FSBs ballooned during the year 2018-19 with total amount of FSBs issued
amounting to Rs. 64192.10[1].
d. Expenditure
under all these three heads amounted to Rs. 240192 crore.
8. Thus,
actual fiscal deficit in 2018-19 was Rs. 885559 crore or 4.66% of GDP of Rs.
190.10 lakh crore for the year.
Fiscal deficit in 2019-20
9. Fiscal
performance in 2019-20 has been quite weak. Nominal GDP growth itself has
fallen to 7.5% (as per first advance estimates released by CSO). Compared with
the provisional/actual tax revenues of the Centre for 2018-19, the estimated
tax revenues for FY 2019-20 at Rs. 16.50 lakh crore (7.82% of projected GDP FY
2019-20) are Rs. 3.33 lakh crore higher (projected growth of 25.26%). Actual
tax performance has been quite poor. In this, major policy decision of the
Government to reduce corporate tax rates (desirable as it was considering very
high corporate tax rates in the country), has also contributed. Personal income
taxes are also growing at very small rate. GST revenues are also not very
robust. There is substantial shortfall visible in excise duties and customs
duties, which had a very high asking rate this year. There is every likelihood
that there would be shortfall of Rs. 2 lakh crore, plus/minus 25000 crore, in
the tax revenues this fiscal.
10. Non-tax
revenues are doing quite well this year thanks to hefty transfer from the RBI.
There is also good likelihood that a part of licence fee and spectrum charges
arrears linked to the definition of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) accepted by
the Supreme Court would flow in this financial year, which might neutralize the
impact of deferred spectrum fee due for the year. Dividend from public sector
companies, including some dividend from banks this year, especially from the
SBI, should turn out to be closer to the budgetary targets. Therefore, it would
be reasonable to expect an additional revenue of Rs. 50000 (plus/minus 10000
crore) under non-tax revenues.
11. The
Government initiated its biggest reform by announcing strategic sell off of
BPCL, Shipping Corporation of India and Container Corporation of India. Achievement
of disinvestment target of Rs. 1.05 lakh crore is not achieved even 20% by now.
These three disinvestments, at about Rs. 80000 crore or so, were the biggest
hope for achieving the disinvestment target. However, it seems the process is
moving slower than planned and it is unlikely that sale of all the three,
especially BPCL, which was set to provide about 3/4th of this Rs. 80000 crore,
would be completed by March 31, 2020. Therefore, there is likelihood of
disinvestment target being missed by about Rs. 50000 crore this year.
12. Taking
all this together, there is likely shortfall of Rs. 2 lakh crore to Rs. 2.5
lakh crore on revenue side this fiscal 2019-20.
13. The
Government has recently directed limiting expenditure to 25% of the budgeted
amount in the last quarter of the current fiscal. Considering the nature of
government expenditure (50% is establishment and interest payments) and a 65.3%
of expenditure has already been incurred until November 2019, there is
virtually no likelihood that the Government would be able to save anything from
the budgeted expenditure of 2019-20. The adjustment of food subsidy (payment
from NSSF) may likely be resorted to this year also.
14. Taking
all these on board, it would be fair to expect the headline fiscal deficit to
go up by Rs. 130000 crore to Rs. 200000 crore i.e. .6% to 1% of GDP. The
headline fiscal deficit number therefore is likely to be between 3.7% to 4% of
GDP.
15. Like
earlier years, three broad heads of expenditure- recapitalisation of banks and
other financial institutions like IIFCL and Exim Bank, payment of food subsidy
via NSSF and expenditure/ investment funded through FSBs, are likely to be
between Rs.175000-225000 crore this fiscal. Real fiscal deficit is, therefore,
likely to be around 4.5% to 5% of GDP.
DEBT AND LIABILITIES
Where do you get the information
on Government’s Debt and Liabilities?
16. Best
source to get a good sense of the Central Government’s debt and liabilities is the
Status Paper on Government Debt published annually by the Department of
Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. The Status Paper on Government Debt for
2017-2018 was published by the Ministry of Finance in January 2018. This
publication for 2018-19 is not yet published. DEA also brings out a quarterly
publication- Public Debt Management- which primarily deals with the issuance,
trends and issues connected with the ‘market borrowing’ of the Government of
India. The publication for July- September 2019-20 has been published in
December 2019.
17. The
Government also publishes a Statement of Liabilities of the Central Government.
This is at page 48 of the Receipt Budget 2019-20.
Reconciling these two sets of numbers
18. Final
numbers are available for only 2017-18. The reconciliation, therefore, has been
carried out for 2017-18.
19. Budgetary
Statement states the total Debt and Liabilities of the Government at Rs. 82.35
lakh crore at the end of 2017-18. This Statement carries a Note to state that
liabilities of “Govt. fully serviced bonds” is in addition.
20. The
Status Paper on Government Debt, however, reports that actual Debt and
Liabilities of the Central Government was at Rs. 77.99 lakh crore at the end of
2017-18. There is thus a difference of Rs. 4.36 lakh crore between the two
numbers.
21. The
difference is primarily on account of treatment of two items- a. external debt
and b. investment by NSSF into the state government securities. Status Paper
takes into account current value (Rs. 4.83 lakh crore) of the external debt
whereas budgetary statement takes external debt of the Government at historical
exchange values (Rs. 2.50 lakh crore). This explains the difference of 2.33
lakh crore. The second difference is on account of differential treatment of
two elements of investments made from the NSSF. Status Paper on Government Debt
excludes two items- Investment of NSSF in the Securities issued by the State
Governments and NSSF’s loan to Public agencies. These two items make the
Central Government Debt and Liabilities shorter by Rs. 6.69 lakh crore. The
combined effect of these two items is Rs. 4.36 lakh crore.
22. Treatment
of liabilities in the Status Paper is correct and therefore the Debt and Liabilities
as stated in the Status Paper at Rs. 77.99 lakh crore at the end of 2017-18 or
45.62% should be taken as representing true debt and liabilities position of
the Government.
There are however a few
missing debt and liabilities from the Status Paper
23. As
in case of fiscal deficit, some of the liabilities of the Government of India
have not been included in the Status Paper.
a. Fully
Service Bonds (FSBs): Government of India had issued FSBs of Rs. 9167 crore in
2016-17 and Rs. 15095 crore in the year 2017-18. These represent real liabilities
of the Government of India. Thus, the off-budget liability towards FSBs of Rs.
24262 crore at the end of FY 2017-18 should be included in the Debt and
Liabilities of the Government of India for the year 2017-18.
b. The
Government incurs liability in the form of annuity for several projects
awarded. There are 38 Road projects for which outstanding annuity obligations
at the end of FY 2017-18 was Rs. 45,689 crore[2]. There are some other
projects with annuity commitment of Rs. 5050 crore. Thus, total liability
obligations towards annuity payments as at the end of FY 2017-18 amounting to
Rs. 50,739 crore should be included as the Debt and Liabilities of the
Government of India at end 2017-18.
c. Loans
from NSSF to Agencies like FCI to provide loan cash against revenue liabilities
of the Central Government by reducing food subsidy expenditure should be
treated as the liability of the Central Government. FCI had received from NSSF
Rs. 70000 crore in 2016-17 and Rs. 65000 crore in 2017-18 to cover deferred
payment of food subsidies. Out of this, Rs. 14000 crore was repaid in 2017-18.
Rs. 1.21 lakh crore was, thus, net outstanding as on 31st March,
2018. Likewise, the Building Materials and Technology Corporation (a receptacle
of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs had received Rs. 8000 crore to
cover PM Awas Yojana subsidies in 2017-18. Thus, liabilities of Rs. 1.29 lakh
crore represented clear obligations of the Central Government and should be included
in the liability of Government of India.
d. Finally,
there is an element of overstatement of Government of India’s liability in the
Status Paper. A good part of the external debt in the Status paper represents
loans on-lent to the States by the Government of India. This amount represents
the state governments’ liability and is rightly included in their budget and
accounts papers as their liability. Including, these again in the GOI papers is
nothing but double counting and wrong attribution. Such liabilities are
estimated to be Rs. 175000 crore.
True size of India’s debt and
liabilities at end FY 2017-18
24. Taking
into account the four elements described above, the total Debt and Liabilities
of the Government of India at the end of FY 2013-14 was Rs. 78,27,848 crore. This
makes the liabilities, as compared to the Status Paper, higher by Rs. 29000
crore. India’s nominal GDP during 2017-18 was Rs. 17095005 crore (as per
advance estimates for 2019-20 released by CSO on 7th January 2020). Thus,
India’s Debt to GDP ratio at the end of 2017-18 was 45.79%.
25. The
debt and liabilities number reported in the Budget Papers (Receipt Budget Part
2 of 2019-20) for 2017-18 was Rs. 82,34, 877 crore. This made up 48.17% of the
GDP. However, this does not represent correct description of Government of
India’s Debt and Liabilities, primarily because it treats investment of NSSF in
State Governments’ Securities as Government of India’s Liabilities. The correct
size of India’s debt and liabilities was Rs.78.28 lakh crore and debt to GDP
ratio 45.79%.
Size of India’s debt and liabilities
in 2018-19
26. The
Status Paper on Government Debt for 2019 is still not published by the Ministry
of Finance. Ministry of Finance. The Government provides information about the
total debt and liabilities, as per the convention and concepts used in the Status
Paper on Government Debt, in the quarterly report on Public Debt Management.
27. As
per the report released for the January-March 2019 quarter by the Ministry of
Finance, total Debt and Liabilities of the Government of India at the end of
March 2019 was Rs. 84,68,086 crore. This exceeded the liabilities at the end of
FY 2017-18 by Rs. 6,69,238 crore. There seems to be some issue about this
number. Special Securities issued by the Government to fund equity infusion in
the public sector banks (this year EXIM Bank was also included) is always added
in the debt and liabilities of the Government of India, both in budget papers
and also in the Status Paper. If only the recapitalisation bonds of Rs. 1.06
lakh crore are added to the provisional fiscal deficit of Rs. 6.45 lakh crore
(as reported by CGA), the debt and liabilities should be higher by 7.51 lakh
crore. This is at variance with the increase in debt and liabilities as
reported in the quarterly report.
28. We
will have to await release of the Status Paper for 2018-19 to make final
assessment of the actual debt and liabilities of 2018-19. For the present, it
would suffice, if we add the three expenditure (as in previous paragraph
relating to fiscal deficit) i.e. Rs. 2.40 lakh crore to the provisional fiscal
deficit of 6.45 lakh crore. Increase in debt then becomes Rs. 8.85 lakh crore.
Adding this number to the previous year’s debt and liabilities of Rs. 78.28
lakh crore, total debt and liabilities provisionally for the year 2018-19 at
Rs. 87.13 lakh crore. of 2018-19.
29. Total
Debt and Liabilities of the Government of India, as per our provisional
assessment increased from Rs. 78.28 lakh crore in 2017-18 to Rs. 87.13 lakh
crore rising marginally from 45.79% of GDP to 45.83% of GDP of Rs.190.10 lakh
crore.
A more
detailed analysis of issues connected with fiscal deficit, debt and liabilities
of the Government, see my note Fiscal Deficit and Debt- An Albatross around the
neck of India also at subhashchandragarg.blogspot.com.
SUBHASH CHANDRA GARG
NEW DELHI 14/01/2020
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Pegging the debt to GDP is not so logical as all the GDP will not be at the disposal of the Govt. Assuming the constancy in tax collections and rates(with a conservative growth of inflation), it will be prudential to borrow as per one's asset and income servicing capacity.
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